Title: Model-based design of adaptive pathways
Presenter: A/Prof Jan Kwakkel, TU Delft
When? Wednesday 13/12, 4-5pm
Where? Engineering & Maths EMG06, Adelaide University
Bio: Jan Kwakkel is an Associate Professor at Delft University of Technology. His research focuses on model based approaches to support decision making in complex uncertain systems. He is an expert in many objective robust decision making, and the use of adaptation pathways. He has applied his research in a variety of domains including fresh water supply, flood risk, air transport, sea transport, global logistics, and national safety and security. He is the vice president for the society for decision making under deep uncertainty. He is the lead developer of the exploratory modelling workbench, which is an open source library for applying a variety of model-based scenario techniques.
Abstract: Adaptation pathways has emerged as one of the preferred ways of framing the climate adaptation challenge. Climate adaptation is approached as a sequential decision-making process, yoked to an evolving knowledge base. This enables dynamic adaptation over time in response to changing climatological and socio-economic conditions. In the Netherlands, the adaptation pathway approach is foundational for the Delta Program, which is enshrined in the Delta Law, and has an annual budget of 1.2 billion euros. In this talk, I will introduce the adaptation pathway approach and how it emerged in the Netherlands. Next, I will discuss the challenges one faces when designing adaptation pathways. Climate adaptation involves a variety of stakeholders and decision-makers at different scales, is subject to a wide variety of deeply uncertain factors, and involves intervening in a complex socio-environmental system. I will present several computational approaches that can be used to assist in this. In particular, I will discuss the use of Multi-Objective Robust Optimization, and Robust Decision-Making as two particularly appealing approaches for supporting the design of adaptation pathways.