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Data Wrap – 28 July

Consumer Price Index
Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed that inflation remained subdued in the June quarter. The 8-capitals Consumer Price Index rose by just 0.2 per cent in the June quarter 2017, following a 0.5 per cent rise in the March quarter. Through the year to the June quarter the CPI was up 1.9 per cent, which is a moderate result by historical standards.

Measures of underlying inflation also remain subdued. The trimmed mean and weighted median both rose by 1.8 per cent through the year to the June quarter 2017. With a lack of any underlying inflationary pressures, sluggish wages growth, and the recent appreciation in the exchange rate, there is little imperative for the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates in the short term.

Turning to inflation outcomes in South Australia, the CPI for Adelaide rose by just 0.1 per cent in the June quarter 2017, to be up 1.6 per cent over the past year. Hence inflation has been more subdued in South Australia compared to national trends recently. This may change in the September quarter as recent large prices increases for electricity and gas are captured by the CPI.

Regional Population Growth
The ABS today released regional estimates of estimated resident population for 30 June 2016. As these estimates are preliminary and consequently subject to revision, they should only be considered indicative at this stage. Nonetheless, they provide interesting insight into regional variations in population outcomes over longer time periods.

The total number of people living in South Australia rose by 4.5 per cent between June 2011 and June 2016. In comparison, the national population rose by 8.4 per cent over this period. Tasmania (1.2 per cent) was the only state or territory to experience a smaller proportional increase in its resident population compared to South Australia over the past 5 years, while Victoria enjoyed the strongest rise (12 per cent).

Consistent with national trends, growth in the South Australian resident population over the last 5 years was stronger for the metropolitan area than rural and regional areas. The population living in Greater Adelaide grew by 4.8 per cent between June 2011 and June 2016, while the population living in the rest of South Australia grew by 3.5 per cent.

Despite the stronger rise in population for the greater metropolitan area, there was strong population growth for some regional areas. For example, in terms of local government areas, Yankalilla (18 per cent) and Lower Eyre Peninsula (13 per cent) recorded that largest proportional increases in resident population between June 2011 and 2016. Other local government areas that experienced strong population growth over this period included Playford (12 per cent), Adelaide (12 per cent), Mount Barker (11 per cent), Gawler (11 per cent), Copper Coast (10 per cent) and Alexandrina (10 per cent). In comparison, more than a dozen councils areas recorded a decline in resident population over the last 5 years, with the largest being for Maralinga Tjarutja (-17 per cent), Roxby Downs (-16 per cent), Anangu Pitjantjatjara (-6 per cent), Sothern Mallee (-3.1 per cent), Peterborough (-3.0 per cent) and Flinders Ranges (-3.0 per cent).

 

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